Calculate expected loss from a hypothetical event probability and loss magnitude, while keeping consequence and spread separate.
How to use this tool
- Choose the event or model and review the assumptions below.
- Enter the labeled inputs. Probability inputs are percentages from 0 to 100, not decimal fractions.
- Select Calculate and read the labeled outputs.
- Change an input and calculate again; Reset restores the example inputs.
Calculation method
Expected loss=probability×loss magnitude, with zero loss in the complementary outcome. Variance=loss²p(1−p).
Assumptions and limits
A single hypothetical loss scenario with a nonnegative magnitude. This is neither a complete return forecast nor a personal investment recommendation; multiple or overlapping loss scenarios require a fuller model.
Worked example
A 12% chance of a 1,000-unit loss with zero loss otherwise gives expected loss 120 units. It does not mean a single outcome loses exactly 120.
Worked reading and practical questions
- Expected Loss Is Not the Worst-Case Loss
- Compare Probability and Impact Without Calling One Number a Full Risk Profile
Browse Statistics calculators or explore other tools on the GreenCalc homepage.
Frequently asked questions
What does this calculator assume?
A single hypothetical loss scenario with a nonnegative magnitude. This is neither a complete return forecast nor a personal investment recommendation; multiple or overlapping loss scenarios require a fuller model.
How do I enter and update the inputs?
Use the labeled fields, then select Calculate. Percent fields use 0 to 100. After editing, calculate again; Reset restores the example inputs.