Two different probability-impact trays with a central comparison scale. Original AI-generated artwork produced for GreenCalc; not a measured diagram or empirical data display.
Equal products can conceal different exposures
A hypothetical event with probability 10% and loss 100 units has expected loss 10 units. Another with probability 1% and loss 1,000 units has the same expected loss. Their probabilities and worst-case consequences differ by a factor of ten, so the matching mean does not make the scenarios interchangeable.
Compare the example behind a simple ranking
An event with probability 12% and loss 1,000 has expected loss 120. One with probability 7% and loss 2,000 has expected loss 140. The first has the lower expected-loss product; the second has the lower event probability but higher consequence. Describing either simply as “safer” without naming the criterion discards information.
Check uncertainty in both factors
Probability may be an estimate from limited observations and impact may vary across circumstances. A small change in either input can alter the ranking. Probabilities should refer to comparable periods, and loss amounts should use the same unit and accounting basis. Overlapping scenarios cannot automatically be added as though they were disjoint outcomes.
Report the inputs beside the product
The Risk Calculator gives a compact expected-loss calculation, not a complete risk profile. Read expected versus worst-case loss for the two-outcome interpretation. The existing same expected value, different risk guide examines spread across general payoff distributions. A decision may require constraints, uncertainty analysis and context beyond any of these arithmetic summaries.
Check the model behind your result
Use the Risk Calculator for the supported calculation and review its stated assumptions before interpreting the output. Find related tools in the Statistics category, or browse the GreenCalc homepage for other calculation topics.
By GreenCalc Editorial Team · Updated 2026-10-26